The poll was conducted April 22-26 and has a +/- error rate of 5 percent. It polled 407 registered voters who are likely to vote in the GOP primary.

Most political chatter has suggested that a large number of Republican primary voters will strategically vote for the candidate in the strongest position to unseat Coats as the front-runner. If true, Hostettler may stand to benefit, particularly from supporters of Behney and Bates. Yet Coats’s lead is so large that it would take quite a bit of consolidation behind Hostettler in order for him to win.

We here at Hoosier Advocate can’t resist the temptation to say “we told ya so.” Roughly two weeks ago we provided a leaked internal poll showing Coats and Hostettler as the leading candidates. But since then Coats has bought significant advertisements around the state, and highlighted the endorsement of Mike Pence, all managing to strengthen his position.

It’s hard for many pundits outside of southern Indiana to grasp or understand Hostettler’s popularity. In their mind, as evidenced by their lopsided reporting on the issue, the real race is between Coats and Stutzman. Yet today’s results confirm that Hostettler is the only truly viable candidate able to beat Coats. Whether other GOP voters will see that and rally to his cause remains to be seen.

It turns out there IS a poll. It IS coming out tomorrow (April 29th). It IS a Survey USA poll (as many speculated/guessed/reported). But it IS NOT a Dan Coats internal poll. It was commissioned by the (take a deep breath before saying this aloud) Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Ft. Wayne.

The release of the poll is scheduled for Thursday “morning”. When I get it. I WILL post it.

Stay tuned. This poll could very easily sway the votes of large blocks of voters wishing to get behind the strongest candidate not named Coats.

“I am disappointed in fellow candidate Kristi Risk,” says candidate Bud Bernitt. Last week Bernitt criticized Ms. Risk for her flip flops on the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. At a debate in Daviess County, Ms. Risk was the only candidate to say she would vote to cut off the funds for our troops. The Washington (Indiana) Times-Herald said, “On the war on terror, all but Risk were supportive of the troops.” Later, in Evansville, she changed her position saying that yes she would vote to fund both wars.

She now even denies ever saying she would defund the troops. But audio of the Daviess County debate shows Risk not only said she would defund the troops, she went as far as to say that the war in Afghanistan, from where the 9/11 attacks were launched, irritates the terrorists and implies we should appease them and that our troops are causing the terrorists to attack us. These disturbing comments are the same as liberal talking points. No wonder Risk continues to deny and misrepresent her recorded statements.

Risk also continues to insist that she lives on a farm while she actually lives in a residential subdivision which prohibits farm animals. The covenants and restrictions in her subdivision allows for up to three dogs and three cats and no other animals. No matter what you call it, it’s not a farm. Risk is still, apparently, willing to say anything to get elected, and to change what she tells the voters depending on how the wind blows. Do we need another politician who says one thing and does another, who misrepresents themselves, and who will say anything to get to Washington, D.C.?

Bernitt said, “For over 10 years, I have fought dishonest and corrupt politicians, even at the expense of death threats and other intimidation tactics. But the truth is the truth, and the voters need to know the truth about the extremist views of this candidate.”

Kristi Risk, a stay-at-home mom seeking the GOP nomination, spoke to a crowd in Washington, Ind. about the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. There Risk indicated the wars were unconstitutional and that she would work defund them. Yet in a subsequent debate in Evansville Risk claimed to support full funding of both wars.

The “flip-flopping” didn’t sit well with fellow candidate Bud Bernitt, who issued this press release railing against Risk. For good measure he even took a swipe at the alleged “farm” where she claims to live – a couple acres with a goat, in a residential subdivision (covenants and restrictions in her subdivision allows for up to three dogs and three cats and no other animals). The Terre Haute Tribune covers the Bernitt/Risk fight here.

Conveniently Bernitt leaves out the fact that he lives in Bloomington, which is outside of the 8th congressional district and therefore makes him ineligible to serve. But why let such pesky details get in the way of Kristi Risk’s obvious missteps and misdeads?

Meanwhile another candidate for the GOP nomination, serial name-dropper John Lee Smith, has already fumbled by erroneously claiming the support of Greg Goode, the previous Republican candidate in Indiana’s 8th CD. Goode issued a statement to all of Vigo County disavowing any support or relationship to Smith. Now Smith’s campaign has more trouble on its hands. The Courier & Press reports that his pastor from Crossroads Christian Church sent a letter on church letterhead urging support for Smith, putting the church in tax gray area.

Then there is the problem that all candidates but Bucshon seem to have – filing FEC reports on time. Only Bucshon had properly filed his report on time, and once some did eventually come in late, it wasn’t pretty. Through the first quarter Bucshon had raised $244,982, while Kristi Risk raised a paltry $22,684 (currently the report indicates her campaign is in debt) and Dan Stockton only $2,445. John Lee Smith still has yet to file a report.

With the exception of Larry Bucshon, the Republican primary in Indiana’s 8th congressional district seems to be amateur hour. Is it any wonder that so many “establishment” Republicans lined up behind Bucshon? At the current pace May 4th’s primary could shape up to be a Bucshon blow-out.

Corrections: Two readers write to offer suggested corrections to this post. First, although Bud Bernitt does not live int he 8th CD, he is apparently still eligible to serve in that office (though it does pose a problem with connecting to “your” constituents. Second, Dan Stockton did in fact file his FEC report on time, along with Larry Bucshon. Kristi Risk and John Lee Smith, however, did not.

“Dan Coats’ integrity and conservative record make him the best candidate for the job. Dan is a proven conservative leader who is trusted by Hoosiers. I know Dan Coats well and I have long admired his personal faith, his devotion to family and his service to the people of Indiana. I know we will work together to support our troops, create jobs, restore fiscal discipline and defend traditional moral values.”

“I am proud to support Dan Coats as the Republican nominee to the United States Senate,” Pence said.

Coats added, “I am delighted to have the support of Mike Pence. Hoosiers are lucky to have a leader like Mike in the United States House of Representatives fighting for them every single day. Each time President Obama proposes job-killing, deficit-inflating legislation or weakens our national security, Mike Pence clearly and effectively voices the frustration and concerns of Hoosiers.”

Mike Pence has deftly positioned himself as the darling of the Tea Party movement, but the fact is that Pence is as entwined with Republican party establishment as anyone. He’s the third ranking Republican in the House and supported many of the unpopular George W. Bush legislative goals now so widely attacked by tea partiers.

There are certainly good reasons to support Dan Coats and Mike Pence, just as there are good reasons to support John Hostettler and Marlin Stutzman. But today’s announcement by Pence should dispel any notion that he’s an outsider. He’s a member of established national party leadership and has towed the party line in his endorsement of Coats.

Most likely Coats’s recent TV ad campaign helped raise his numbers. As we first reported here at Hoosier Advocate, one statewide poll of likely GOP voters shows John Hostettler within striking distance of Coats. But over the weekend a Coats staffer peddled internal polling painting a much different story in which Coats had a sizable lead.

There is certainly reason to believe a Coats lead – he served as senator for quite a while and has sizable name ID. Yet the Rasmussen polls also reinforce the strength Hostettler has throughout the state, and not just in Southern Indiana. Indianapolis-based political junkies often seem to have trouble comprehending his popularity, but even the relatively reliable Rasmussen numbers affirm Hostettler’s potency statewide and support the notion of an even race between Hostettler and Coats.

Regardless of the GOP nominee, Ellsworth’s public career seems destined to end after this November’s election. His support is stuck in the low 30’s. A healthy 65% favor repeal of the recently passed health care law which he helped pass, including 56% who strongly favor repeal. 56% favor the state suing the federal government to prevent the health care plan from becoming law and 55% of voters in the state say their own views on the issues of the day are closer to the views of the average Tea Party member than to those of President Obama.

At a recent Vigo County GOP Breakfast Event a representative for John Smith, a Candidate for the 8th Congressional Seat, announced that his campaign had received the support of the Galen Goode and Greg Goode Family. It was represented that Greg Goode had been in contact with Greg Goode and that Greg Goode sent his best wishes to those in attendance. It was also relayed that Galen Goode was chairing the John Smith campaign in Vigo County.

The Goode Family wishes to state that the Goode family is not endorsing this candidate for Congress or any other Candidate for Congress. Greg Goode has contacted the Vigo County GOP Central Committee and has asked that this correction be released via email.

It has also come to the attention to the Vigo County GOP Central Committee that some candidates for Congress have also made statements stating one or more of the Vigo County Central Committee have endorsed their campaign. The Vigo County Central Committee, not individually or collectiely, made any endorsement of a Candidate running for the 8th Congressional Seat.

If you have questions about this email please contact Bill Treadway, Chairman of the Vigo County Republican Party at 812-878-4230.

Ouch, this isn’t exactly the best way to make a first impression.

So which poll is accurate? We’re not sure. These are two competing statewide polls that both feature likely primary voters. The poll predicting a Coats victory is certainly plausible, especially since the activist, tea party wing of the party has divided its vote among several candidates. Ultimately we will have to wait until May 4th to find out.

At the close of the first quarter in 2010, Larry Bucshon had raised a total of $244,982 and had $163,482 on hand. Meanwhile Bucshon’s likely opponent in November, Trent Van Haaften, raised $165,904 and had $145,765 on hand.

Bucshon is clearly in the driver’s seat in terms of money raised, cash on hand, and name ID. Moreover, he will likely stand to net waves of additional support from traditional Republican sources when the primary battle wraps up. As a newcomer to the political process Bucshon has had a steep learning curve, but these latest finance reports suggest that he’s meeting that challenge admirably and will be a formidable opponent to Van Haaften.